A desperate Stuttgart side will take on Mainz in what is one of the last chances for the hosts to keep their relegation fight alive. As the Bundesliga website puts it, this is the “mother of all must-win games” for VFB Stuttgart.

Stuttgart is on the last place, 4 points behind the playout spot held by Paderborn. The futility of Hannover, Freiburg and Paderborn gave Stuttgart plenty of chances to get out of the red zone, but the hosts are just too poor and disorganized to take them – Stuttgart won just 2 games after the Winter break. The hosts are by far the worst home side in the Bundesliga with 8 losses and just 3 wins in 15 games, largely due to the fact that they are horribly bad when playing possession football and building attacks.

Stuttgart can be a little bit dangerous on their day when given spaces to exploit on the break, but when they are forced to take the initiative, they are a disaster. With no chemistry or tactical idea, Stuttgart can not build anything and often loses the ball in midfield, getting punished on the break. It’s no surprise that their two wins in 2015 came against all out attacking sides like Werder Bremen and Frankfurt.

10th placed Mainz is not that type of team, they are a balanced side with a good counterattacking game and will look to exploit VFB’s weaknesses. Mainz is on the back of a 1-2 home defeat against Hamburg, after previously winning 2 games in succession. The visitors are in good form and, even though they have nothing left to fight for, they will surely look to bounce back after the disappointing performance in the last round.



Team news & lineups:

The big news for Stuttgart is that Niedermeier is questionable and he is 50-50 to be in the starting lineup, while Rudiger is a heavy doubt. Mainz will miss Brosinki (suspended) and Soto (injured last round) alongside Hofmann and Nedelev.

Stuttgart: Ulreich – Klein, Rüdiger, Niedermeier, Hlousek – Serey Dié, Gentner – Harnik, Maxim, Kostic – Ginczek

Mainz: Karius – Jara, Bungert, Bell, J.-H. Park – Geis, Baumgartlinger – Jairo, Malli, Koo – Okazaki

Even if Stuttgart is the more motivated side, motivation alone rarely wins you matches. The hosts are horrible on the defensive end and I fully expect Mainz to bang in a couple of goals on counterattacks, where they are so good – showcasing (again) Stuttgart’s inability to control a game. Nothing good can come out of this matchup for Stuttgart as far as I`m concerned, Mainz is the better team with much better organization and I expect them to grab at least a point.

I bet that the need to dominate possession today and the unbelievable pressure of the situation will break down the hosts against a relaxed, cohesive opponent. My tip is Mainz +0,5 handicap. Prediction: VFB Stuttgart – Mainz 1-2.

Pick: Mainz +0,5
Odds: 1.91